Suntory Promotion Lift & Demand Modeling

The Challenge

Suntory spends heavily on retail promotions and vendor incentives across a global portfolio of spirits brands. The question was where to allocate those dollars for maximum sales lift — across different brands, markets, retail channels, and promotion types. Traditional reporting couldn't isolate which promotions actually drove incremental sales versus cannibalizing baseline demand.

The Approach

Developed AI/ML models to measure the causal lift of promotions and vendor incentives on retail sales, isolating incremental impact from baseline demand. Applied across Suntory's global operations spanning bourbon, cognac, and Japanese whisky categories, covering flagship brands in multiple markets.

The Results

Delivered promotion-effectiveness models across some of the world's most recognized spirits brands, enabling data-driven allocation of promotional spend. The models quantified which incentive types, retail channels, and timing windows produced the highest incremental lift, shifting promotion strategy from intuition-based to evidence-based.